Straight Up Picks Week 15

Posted by Sebrina Pilcher on Friday, May 3, 2024

In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, and have carried that success into the early portion of the 2022 schedule – posting a 125-68-2 (65.4%) record through 13 weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 201-97-2 (68.3%) picking winners straight up!

In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. In Week 4, we hit each of our top four selections, in addition to correctly nailing five underdogs. In Week 5, favorites dominated, and we won on 11 of our selections. In Week 6, we managed another positive week, despite a number of unexpected results around the league. In Week 7, we finished only 7-7, but six of our top eight selections won, salvaging the slate for confidence pool participants. In Week 8, we had our second-best week of the year, which included hitting each of our top seven selections! Week 9 was our second consecutive week with double-digit victories, despite multiple teams being on a bye. In Week 10, we took a beating thanks to a couple of major upsets, but bounced-back, as promised, in Week 11 – hitting each of our top-seven plays, including 11-of-14 overall! In Week 12, we had double-digit victories for the fourth time in five weeks. In Week 13, we were burned by the final injury report in a couple of places, but still managed to hit each of our top six confidence plays. The positive momentum carried over to Week 14, when we hit six of our top seven confidence picks once again, with our lone loss being a fourth quarter collapse by the Las Vegas Raiders. Let’s take a look at Week 15!

2022 NFL Pick’em

In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.

NFL Week 15 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings

2022 Weekly Results

  • Week 1: 10-5-1
  • Week 2: 8-8
  • Week 3: 13-3
  • Week 4: 9-7
  • Week 5: 11-5
  • Week 6: 8-6
  • Week 7: 7-7
  • Week 8: 12-3
  • Week 9: 10-3
  • Week 10: 7-7
  • Week 11: 11-3
  • Week 12: 11-5
  • Week 13: 8-6-1
  • Week 14: 8-5

2021 Weekly Results

  • Week 1: 10-6
  • Week 2: 10-6
  • Week 3: 15-1
  • Week 4: 9-7
  • Week 5: 13-3
  • Week 6: 9-5
  • Week 7: 10-3
  • Week 8: 8-7
  • Week 9: 9-5
  • Week 10: 5-8-1
  • Week 11: 8-7
  • Week 12: 7-8
  • Week 13: 11-3
  • Week 14: 12-2
  • Week 15: 11-5
  • Week 16: 11-5
  • Week 17: 13-3
  • Week 18: 10-6

Week 15 Selections

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. Dallas Cowboys
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Washington Commanders
9. Tennessee Titans
10. Green Bay Packers
11. San Francisco 49ers
12. New Orleans Saints
13. New York Jets
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
15. Denver Broncos
16. Las Vegas Raiders

NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 15

Chiefs (vs. Texans)

After being a last-minute scratch in Week 13 against the Cincinnati Bengals, offensive lineman Joe Thuney returned to the field in Week 14 for the Kansas City Chiefs, helping them to score 34 points against a strong Denver Broncos defense. Following their dominant performance against Denver, Kansas City continues to lead the NFL in offensive EPA/play since Week 7. On the other side of the ball, cornerback Trent McDuffie has given this secondary unit a stabilizing presence, especially against inferior receiving corps, such as the Houston Texans. Since Week 7, the Texans rank 32nd in offensive EPA/play and 19th in defensive EPA/play. Simply, the Chiefs are the far more talented team in this spot and should have little trouble earning a road victory.

Eagles (vs. Bears)

Simply, there is no team in the NFL that has been more consistent than the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022. Outside of an unusual game script in their Monday Night Football loss to the Washington Commanders, the Eagles have faced little resistance against any of their opponents this fall. has solidified himself as a bonafide star in this league, and is on his way to his first career Most Valuable Player award if nothing terribly unexpected occurs over the final month of the regular season. The Chicago Bears are decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball and stand little chance here. Expect Philadelphia to win comfortably in the Windy City this weekend.

Bills (vs. Dolphins)

In Week 13, the Bills returned defensive end A.J. Epenesa, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and defensive end Greg Rousseau to the field, and held the New England Patriots to 10 points on Thursday Night Football. Last week, Buffalo held the New York Jets to only 12 points, further supporting the notion that this group will continue to be elite defensively, even without Von Miller on the field. Since recovering from an elbow injury suffered in early November, has a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, as he has continued to propel the AFC’s second-highest scoring offense. During the Bills’ four-game winning streak, this group ranks 8th in EPA/play, having used a balanced approach that has allowed them to have success both on the ground and through the air. In stark contrast to Buffalo’s recent success, Miami has rapidly regressed from an offensive juggernaut to a team searching for answers. In last week’s loss against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football, completed only 10-of-28 pass attempts – the worst single-game completion rate of his career, excluding his performance from Week 2, 2021 in which he threw only four pass attempts. In their last two losses, Miami had only 39 minutes and 48 seconds of possession, compared to 80 minutes and 12 seconds for their opponent. On the injury front, both safety Eric Rowe and safety Elijah Campbell are unlikely to play against the Bills, which will leave the Dolphins thin in the secondary. The Bills are more talented on both sides of the ball, healthier, and have the benefit of home field in this spot – they should find a way to secure a victory, even if they do not cover the spread.

Vikings (vs. Colts)

The Minnesota Vikings ostensibly had their reputation as an elite team shattered last weekend when they lost on the road to the Detroit Lions. However, there are reasons to believe that better days lie ahead for Minnesota. Christian Darrisaw, one of the best left tackles in the NFL is poised to return to the field in Week 15. Per Alec Lewis, the Vikings are averaging 4.8 yards-per-carry and 1.4 yards-before-contact with Darrisaw on the field in 2022, compared to 2.9 yards-per-carry and 0.7 yards-before-contact with him on the sidelines. His presence should be a tremendous boon for this offense. Defensively, this is also an excellent matchup for the Vikings, getting to face a Matt Ryan-led offense that has scored fewer than 20 points in three consecutive games and ranks 31st in offensive EPA/play across their last seven games. Notably, Ryan ranks 54th among all quarterbacks this year in passing grade against the blitz, per Pro Football Focus, which could make life particularly difficult for the Indianapolis offense after comments from the Minnesota coaching staff this week that they are planning to “activate pressure” more often going forward. The Vikings laid an egg against the Lions, but they are likely to get back in the win column here.

Cowboys (vs. Jaguars)

Each of the last two weeks, we have had the Dallas Cowboys as our top confidence play of the week, and they delivered for us both times – though they certainly gave us a scare against Houston. Since returned to the field in Week 7, the Cowboys are 6-1, with their only loss in that span coming against the Green Bay Packers in overtime on the road – a contest in which Dallas led by 14 points with less than 15 minutes remaining. In their last seven games, the Cowboys rank 4th in offensive EPA/play and 2nd in defensive EPA/play. In that same time period, the Houston Texans rank 11th in offensive EPA/play and 30th in defensive EPA/play. The Cowboys are not immune to inexplicably poor performances, but they are undeniably the more talented team in this matchup – they should find a way to deliver for us once again as a higher confidence play in Week 15.

Image Credit: Imagn

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